We've done a few baseball podcast episodes this month, I'm going to Chicago for opening day, I've watched a bit of spring training... but I still haven't felt in a baseball state of mind.
One thing that's been missing is that I haven't been diving into stats. No good rabbit holes have opened up. But as I was talking to Laura Albanese on our walk for The Youppi Show, we talked about the Mets' floor and ceiling.
I started thinking, they were 75-87 last year, the floor is pretty low... but maybe there's something to be learned from what amounts to basically random history involving unrelated franchises. You could call it a kind of baseball astrology. What might the stars say about the 2024 Mets? Call it a historical horoscope, a historoscope.
Okay, the floor is much lower than anyone would have thought. I think this is honestly a fair way to look at these Mets: making the playoffs is somehow a reasonable expectation despite having finished 12 games under .500 in 2023, but it's not guaranteed, and outright disaster is in the back of your mind. Then again, the Orioles brought back Buck Showalter after their 75-win season in 2017, and the 2018 Orioles happened. The decision to switch to Carlos Mendoza looks even better.
Scattered thoughts on other teams, because this certainly became a rabbit hole...
The Cubs won 104 games in 1909 and again in 1910. No 104-win team has ever exceeded 104 wins the following season. What Atlanta cares about is a different kind of history, joining the A's of 35 years ago.
Just when you thought you were safe from the 2023 Mets. Big difference here: the 2024 Orioles won't be relying on a ton of old dudes. Quite the opposite in fact.
These Dodgers doing a 2006 Cardinals would be a hilarious outcome. A 2016 Cardinals even hilariouser A 2019 Yankees feels likeliest.
Feels ominous.
Feels more ominous because of the recent memories of the 2022 Red Sox and 2023 Guardians, in more similar situations than the rest to these Brewers.
The champs are here, and two more teams you expect to see in October. Sorry to Mariners fans for the reminder of last season.
Are the Orioles about to wreck shop in the AL East? I feel like the Orioles might be about to wreck shop in the AL East.
Why have 88-win teams tended to improve while 89-win teams have tended to falter? No reason whatsoever. The Mariners are built to be in that 84-91 win zone in the middle here, and contending for the playoffs. It really does come back to the fun differential. And Big Dumper.
The Central is theirs to lose.
I have absolutely no idea what to expect for either of these teams other than that the annual three-to-five Marlins wins over the Mets that make precisely zero sense.
Not the main character that they think they are.
There's a world you can picture where the Reds win the pennant. Are we in that world? Probably not. But you can picture it. It's not ridiculous. They can ball.
So, there's upside, but also... yeah, they're in the Dodgers' division and the disparity is wide.
The 2010s Giants were so weird.
73 wins again after losing Ohtani would be amazing.
The Nationals will be worse, the Cardinals will be better, neither will be particularly interesting.
You never want to see a Devil Rays logo. That's maybe a little more tarot than astrology, but the rest of this is P*SS.
Nobody ever poses the great "what if" about the 1994 Mets.
This tempers my enthusiasm for what I think is an improving Royals team in a garbage division. They got so deep in garbage themselves, their current logo is the only current logo on here.
Seriously, sell the team.